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Purdue football at Illinois | Who has the edge and prediction

The Boilermakers are seeking their third straight win

Mike Carmin

Journal & Courier

Yards per play: Purdue 6.88; Illinois 5.71
Yards per play allowed: Purdue 5.93; Illinois 6.39
Turnover margin: Purdue -1; Illinois +8
Plays of 20 yards or more: Purdue 30; Illinois 22

Purdue wide receiver Isaac Zico (7) runs away from Nebraska defensive back Lamar Jackson (21) during the first half of an NCAA college football game in Lincoln, Neb., Saturday, Sept. 29, 2018. (AP Photo/Nati Harnik)

Illinois running game vs. Purdue against the run

The Illini have adopted Lovie Smith’s mantra of a strong running game. They’ve rushed for at least 212 yards in all five games and bring a potent attack to face the Boilermakers. Quarterback AJ Bush, Jr., and running backs Greg Corbin and Mike Epstein give Illinois plenty of options to showcase on the ground. Similar to Nebraska, Purdue is going to need to settle in and figure out how to match up with the speed and quickness. Limiting the big plays on the ground and tackling in space become paramount if the defense is going to make a stand. Edge: Illinois

Purdue running game vs. Illinois against the run

What D.J. Knox and Markell Jones have provided the last two games is what the Boilermakers need out of their rushing attack. Good, hard, productive runs to keep opposing defenses from solely focusing on the passing attack. Add Rondale Moore to the ground game, and this phase has a chance to produce more big plays. History tells us that when Purdue plays at Memorial Stadium it runs the ball effectively. In the last four trips, the Boilermakers are averaging 235 yards on the ground. Edge: Purdue

Illinois passing game vs. Purdue against the pass

The Illini don’t lean on the passing game as much, but this hasn’t been an area of strength for the Boilermakers either, setting up an interesting dynamic. Overall, Illinois is completing just 58.6 percent of its passes for 5.9 yards per attempt, the second lowest in the Big Ten behind Rutgers. Meanwhile, Purdue has improved against the pass. Boston College and Nebraska completed less than 60 percent of their passes and were forced to throw after falling behind.

The Boilermakers have at least one interception in four straight games and are turning up the pressure a little bit more. If Purdue can get an early lead, it will hold the upper hand. Edge: Purdue

Purdue passing game vs. Illinois against the pass

Credit David Blough for seizing this opportunity during the last three games. His numbers are impressive – 68 percent completion percentage, averaging nearly 400 yards with seven touchdowns and one interception. We’ll see if the open week slows his momentum but probably not against this defense, which is giving up close to 300 yards a game. Granted, the Illini are solid in forcing turnovers – 10 interceptions but have also allowed 10 touchdowns. Big question mark involves the health of tight ends Cole Herdman and Brycen Hopkins. Herdman was limited in practice during the week and Hopkins missed Thursday's workout. That could mean more opportunities for the outside receivers, who need to start winning those one-on-one matchups on a consistent basis. Edge: Purdue

Special teams

Coming off one of its better performances, Purdue looks to continue its improvement. Kicker Spencer Evans had a solid game at Nebraska and punter Joe Schopper continues to deliver. The coverage units were better compared to the Boston College game. Illinois kicker Chase McLaughlin leads the nation with three field goals of 50 yards or more and is second with seven of more than 40 yards. Punter Blake Hayes leads the conference in punting, averaging 45.6 yards. Edge: Illinois

Purdue vs. Illinois football prediction

A win will bring the Boilermakers back to .500 after the horrible 0-3 start, giving them a boost heading into the second-half schedule when Ohio State, Michigan State, Iowa and Wisconsin show up. Credit to Jeff Brohm, his staff and the players for getting things straightened out but the journey back is far from over. Purdue needs this win, not only to reach .500 but also to stay involved in the race for a bowl game. Illinois is in the same situation. The Illini have a more manageable schedule to reach six wins but are looking to take another step after the victory at Rutgers. This is a game that should feature plenty of points, but there’s more trust in the Boilermakers’ defense compared to the start of the season. Purdue 43, Illinois 36